12 November 2024
This Helsinki Commission Hearing examines how, to enable Ukrainian progress in the near- to medium-term, Western military aid must be purposeful and tied to a concrete and actionable theory of Ukrainian victory. The hearing features key experts on Ukraine and its defensive needs, ongoing battlefield dynamics, and policy recommendations to inform the development of future military aid packages.
Long range munitions can destroy key Russian offensive capabilities and disrupt its sustainment infrastructure; multi-layered air defense can protect Ukrainian cities and deny Russia the air dominance their forces depend upon; and targeted Ukrainian attacks against Russian military targets in occupied Ukraine, and in Russia itself, can help degrade the Russian war economy and boost Ukrainian morale. With a military unable to compete with Ukrainian defenders on equal footing on the battlefield, Russian forces have resorted to employing overwhelming mass of men and materiel, sustained in large part with munitions, drones, and technological inputs from Iran, North Korea, and China. To counteract these Russian advantages, Western aid should not only allow Ukrainian forces to hold the line, but to degrade and destroy fixed Russian positions, enable offensive operations, and effect general exhaustion and collapse among Russian units. The following witnesses testified: •Ambassador John E. Herbst is senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and served for thirty-one years as a foreign service officer in the US Department of State, retiring at the rank of career minister. He was US ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, when he worked to enhance US-Ukrainian relations, help ensure the conduct of a fair Ukrainian presidential election, and prevent violence during the Orange Revolution. Prior to that, he was ambassador to Uzbekistan (2000-03), where he played a critical role in the establishment of an American base to help conduct Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. He also promoted improved US-Uzbek relations, in part by encouraging the government in Tashkent to improve its human rights record. •Michael C. Ryan served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy. In this role he supported the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and oversaw policy issues related to the nations and international organizations of Europe (including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), Russia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Ryan was responsible for efforts to expand partnerships and deepen defense cooperation with more than 120 nations. •Nataliya Bugayova is a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) focusing on the Kremlin’s foreign policy decision-making, information operations, and global campaigns from Ukraine to Africa. Ms. Bugayova previously led ISW’s Russia research team where she helped build the analytical framework that continues to serve as the foundation for ISW’s in-depth reporting on Russia.
