Goldbug100 - Retail investors usually enter the stock markets too late

So we are advising you that

Barclays Capital today said in its latest flagship quarterly research publication, Global Outlook: Don’t Fight the Reflation Trade. The report recommends long positions in equities and minimal exposure to government bonds, but cautions investors to watch for signs that central banks are losing enthusiasm for reflation, which Barclays Capital expects to happen later in 2011.

“The environment looks quite favourable for equities now, but as we proceed through 2011 investors need to be alert to a change,” said Larry Kantor, Head of Research at Barclays Capital. “Overstretched valuations may provide that signal, as might central banks in emerging market countries as they pull back from extremely supportive policies over the course of 2011.”

Additional themes of Barclays Capital’s Global Outlook include:

• Current environment favours commodities and credit, although absolute credit returns could suffer from higher interest rates
• The reflation trade bodes poorly for government bonds, especially considering the unusually high levels of sovereign debt in the developed world
• European debt problems have not been resolved, suggesting investors should be long volatility and implement strategies to protect positions from possible sharp reversals
• Easier monetary policy suggests a weaker dollar; appreciation pressures will be concentrated in European and especially commodity and emerging market currencies

About Barclays Capital’s Global Outlook

The Global Outlook research report, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and outlines the likely implications for global financial markets, including commodities.

Bloomberg during the last hour has broadcast this so small investor if you are thinking of entering the stock market take note

U.S. hedge fund reaps big RBS profit whilst British pensioners in Europe are below the poverty line

It is said that 350,000 British pensioners live in Spain. One has seen his state pension drop from 410 euros (for 4 weeks) over the last twenty months to 290 euros ($406). It should be noted that he is not on the full state pension for having been invalided out of the army after service in Korea he was told that he did not have to make contributions, something that the Department for Work and Pensions changed their mind on after several years which resulted in a short fall in his contributions. A similarly aged pension (a former RAF intelligence officer) who wrote to this department about his difficulty received an insulting letter from a Civil servant stating "there is no legal requirement to help pensioners. The Governments priority is to help pensioners living in this country (England) and it will continue to help them so they are able to have a decent income." (reported in The Olive Press). It is estimated that at least 5% of pensioners will have to return to England putting a burden on that country, but I personally believe that it will be much higher.

Perhaps there should be a common European Union pension where all pensioners receive the same basic pension. English pensioners that were not claiming the heating allowance before they retired do not get it whilst pensioners that moved to Spain or another European country do not. What happened to equality?

Who is to blame? The people that speculate in currencies and secondly the English Government/Bank of England for the possible mismanagement of the sterling weakness. Should the Governer of England King not have reduced interest rates at the same time as the Fed in the USA?

George Soros is still speculating in sterling saying today that he had stopped betting on sterling at $1.40 and can be blamed for sterlings weakness. Jim Rogers makes alarmist remarks about the UK (possibly to line his own pockets) and U.S. hedge fund Paulson & Co's profit (short selling), which could have topped 270 million pounds if it sold all its RBS (RBS.L) position, Other short sellers of UK bank stocks could have been in part to blame for the collapse in their share prices and the resulting talk of nationalisation which further weakened sterling. Of course Sir Frank Goodwin (or will it be Frank Goodwin) comes into the equation for his running of RBS allowing Paulson & Co's to short the banks shares!

We did write to Bloomberg suggesting that the word Nationalisation should not be used by them for at least a month and I have only heard it mentioned once (not forcefully) and it does not appear to have been on the ticker tape. The share price of UK banks appeared to have recovered by over 100%

My message left on Bloomberg. Let us see if they publish

Thank You for Your Feedback!

Feedback Status:

TicketID: W00328635880539504685
Status: Waiting
Summary: the use of the word NATIONALISATION by the media

LOG: 1/22/09 06:24:45 Your Initial Feedback

With respect I believe that Bloomberg and other channels are using this word too much and contribute to the fall in financial shares in both the USA and UK. I think that you should try not using this word for at least one month.

Stock markets usually anticipate facts by 6 months. I believe that if we could have healthy stock markets then the economy could improve. This requires both retail and professional investors.

I would also suggest that both capital gains taxes and with holding taxes on dividends be removes to encourage investment. This would encourage investment in quoted companies and compensate the investors (including pensioners) who are getting little or no interest on their savings in banks due to the current low interest climate.

We do not hear on the media the word Nationalisation used with respect to the French Banks - just no bonuses
which is the way it should be. Please restrain your reports for at least one month the use of the word NATIONALISATION